2011 FIBA-Asia Men's Championship Draw Results:

(image from Wikipedia.org)
(image from cbachina.sports.sohu.com)
Group A: Lebanon, Middle Asia Qualifier #1, Malaysia, and S. Korea
- Could be a tough group if Kazakhstan gets to qualify and ends up here. Regardless though, only Malaysia has a really weak chance of advancing.
- Top place should be a toss-up between Lebanon & S. Korea, but the Lebanese have a stronger chance.

(image from cbachina.sports.sohu.com)
Group B: Qatar, Middle Asia Qualifier #2, C. Taipei, and Iran
- The toughest group, even if the weaker Middle Asia qualifying country is inserted here.
- If the 4th slot is given to the Kazakhs, then this will undoubtedly be the Group of Death.
- Iran & Qatar should advance, with C. Taipei's fate dependent on who the 4th member is. If it's a team other than Kazakhstan, the Taiwanese should have no problems, but if it's the Kazakhs then it'll be an all-out brawl.

(image from cbachina.sports.sohu.com)
Group C: Japan, Indonesia, Syria, and Jordan
- Doesn't look too tough, but the Syrians can upset either of the top two teams (Jordan & Japan).
- Indonesia is the only sure bet to crash out.
- Jordan is favored to get the top spot due to their superior size and, well, they have naturalized American Rasheim Wright.

(image from cbachina.sports.sohu.com)
Group D: Philippines, UAE, Bahrain, and China
- Probably the easiest group, with China and the Philippines being clear-cut favorites.
- China is the strongest here and will probably sweep the opposition, but the Pinoys have an outside chance to upset them, especially with Marcus Douthit and 4 PBA reinforcements in tow.
- Bahrain and UAE have a 1-1 record against each other from the Gulf sub-zone qualifiers. It should be interesting to see which one takes the 3rd spot in the next round.

*Remember: Top 3 teams from each group will advance to the Eighth-Final Round. A team's win-loss record against the other two advancing teams from the same group will be carried over. Each team will play against all three advancing team from the partner group -- 
Top 3 from Groups A & B will comprise Group E while top 3 from Groups C & D will make up Group F. Top 4 from each new group of the Eight-Final Round will advance to the Single-Elimination Final Round. Quarterfinal pairings: 1E vs 4F, 2F vs 3E, 1F vs 4E, and 2E vs 3F. Winners move on to the Semifinals and then winners there dispute the 2012 London Olympics slot in the Championship game.

*Just for fun, let's see how things MIGHT go:
- Let's say Kazakhstan gets into Group A and India qualifies into Group B.
- Givens: Lebanon will not have Jackson Vroman and Matt Freije; Iran will have Hamed Haddadi; China will not have Yao Ming, but will have Yi Jianlian; Other than those conditions, all teams will be at full-strength

- Teams whom I think will advance to the Eighth-Final Round:
Group A: Lebanon, S. Korea & Kazkahstan
Group B: Iran, Qatar & C. Taipei
Group C: Jordan, Japan & Syria
Group D: China, Philippines & UAE

- From here, I'll pick Iran, Lebanon, S. Korea & Qatar to advance from Group E.
- I'll also pick China, Philippines, Jordan & Japan to advance from Group F.

- IF that happens, this could be the Championship Round pairings:
Iran vs Japan -- Iran should win quite handily.
Philippines vs S. Korea -- Tough to call since S. Korean NT has never played the Pinoys with Douthit around. I'll be biased and pick PHL.
China vs Qatar -- China hands down.
Lebanon vs Jordan -- Should be close, with Fadi El-Khatib outplaying Sam Dahglas just enough for Lebanon to advance.

- Semis: Iran vs Philippines and China vs Lebanon -- If Haddadi is healthy then Iran will have the edge while China should have enough to hurdle Lebanon.

- Finals: Iran vs China -- China will avenge its 2009 championship loss and beat Iran to advance to the 2012 London Olympics.

Next Post »
5 Comment

Hello! I'm an avid reader of HoopNut and I noticed, no lock out post yet? :(


Wow! Thanks so much for reading my posts :) Much appreciated! I've been wanting to write about the lock out for some time now, but haven't settled on what angle I'd use. I haven't even decided which "side" I'll take (players or owners). I want to take a side and just offer something distinct from the usual "do it for the fans" thing. Hopefully, inspiration enlightens me soon! :)


nice site. first time here but very interesting to read about the "*Just for fun, let's see how things MIGHT go:" hehehe


According to FIBA Asia's site, the Middle Asia's Group A spot is for the "Stans" and Group B's one is for the SAARC region (probably India), so Chinese Taipei will probably advance to the second round.

By the way. I'm following you through Asia-basket.com and I want to know more about PBA to write about it for next season in the site I collaborate with www.piratasdelbasket.es (always quoting your blog)

Nice site.
Kind regards from Malaga, Spain.


Anonymous: Thanks :) I hope I'm wrong though -- I hope our boys upset the favorites!

David: I also read in some online forums that the Kazakhs won't even play in the qualifying due to internal issues. Could open up the field and Uzbekistan should push thru.

I'll keep the PBA updates coming! Thanks! :)